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As I See It, Jan. 23: Cranberry Fest 1956
Researchers Will Soon Predict the Snowpack Before the Snow Even Falls
Farmers, cities, and conservationists rely on melting snow to water their crops, feed their aquifers, and fill streams and rivers for fish. But, usually, no one has any idea how much snowpack — and, thus, snowmelt — to expect until it’s too late.
“It’s important for farmers to understand what can they plant, and when should they plant?” NOAA scientist Sarah Kapnick explained when I caught her on the phone just before the government shutdown went into effect for her agency. “It also matters for people that are really interested in fisheries.”
That’s why Kapnick led a team of researchers to build a tool that can predict the snowpack eight months ahead of time, before the snow even falls. The researchers use conditions in July to predict how much snow will have accumulated in the mountains by the following March. They use observations of ocean temperatures and weather patterns — for example, whether or not it’s an El Niño year — and plug those initial conditions into three global climate models to generate a prediction for what the snowpack will look like eight months out.
Kapnick says the tool can make predictions for individual mountain ranges so each region knows what to expect.
The research was published today in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, but Kapnick and her team want to further refine their tool before making it available to the public.
At the moment, Washington’s snowpack is pretty close to normal, but Oregon’s snowpack is very low.
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New hazelnut variety named for industry official
CORVALLIS, Ore. — A new hazelnut cultivar geared toward the kernel market will soon be released by Oregon State University and named in honor of longtime industry official Polly Owen.
The variety, to be dubbed PollyO, is the latest hazelnut tree developed by OSU breeder Shawn Mehlenbacher that is resistant to Eastern Filbert Blight, a fungal pathogen.
“We’ve had a lot of disease pressure in our field with no cankers on these trees,” Mehlenbacher said during the Nut Growers Society’s annual meeting.
Polly Owen became the director of the Hazelnut Industry Office in 1995 after previously working for the Oregon Cattlemen’s Association and the National Livestock and Meat Board.
She also raised sheep and cattle after graduating from OSU with a bachelor’s degree in food science and technology in 1970.
Geoff Horning, formerly the head of Oregon Aglink, replaced Owen as the hazelnut organization’s chief last year, but she remains involved in the group.
PollyO hazelnuts mature up to two weeks earlier than Barcelona, the popular variety grown in Oregon’s Willamette Valley. The nuts blanch well, meaning they easily shed the skin or pellicle around the kernel that’s undesirable due to bitter compounds.
With an average of about 64.8 pounds of nuts per tree, the PollyO variety is higher yielding than the popular cultivar Jefferson, which produces 54.7 pounds per tree, and Yamhill, which produces 58.4 pounds per tree.
However, PollyO trees are larger than those other varieties, which means the variety produces fewer tons per acre.
The new cultivar is compatible with the McDonald, Wepster and York varieties for pollinization.
Typically, farmers tried to minimize the number of “pollinizer” varieties in an orchard because they weren’t as high yielding, Mehlenbacher said.
Now, many new varieties are sexually compatible and generate decent yields and high-quality nuts, allowing growers to plant multiple cultivars in an orchard, he said.
Farmers who don’t like the small, spreading trees of the Yamhill variety can choose PollyO as an alternative, as both varieties are suited to the kernel market, Mehlenbacher said. Varieties such as Barcelona and Jefferson are typically sold in the in-shell market.
Growers follow wheat from farm to market
PORTLAND — The end of harvest is just the beginning of the story for Oregon wheat, as farmers from around the state learned Jan. 18-19 at the Oregon Wheat Commission’s 2018 grower workshop in Portland.
A group of 15 people gathered at the commission offices in the historic Albers Mill overlooking the Willamette River. From there, they met with experts and toured facilities to witness firsthand what happens to their crop once it leaves the farm.
Oregon farmers typically grow 50 million to 70 million bushels of wheat every year, with a total economic output averaging more than $815 million. Tana Simpson, OWC associate administrator, said the commission assesses 5 cents per bushel, which pays for programs such as export market development, grower services and university research.
The annual workshop is intended to show farmers the value they get in return for their investment, Simpson said.
“These are your dollars that you’re going to see over the next few days,” she said.
The group made its first stop at the nonprofit Wheat Marketing Center, which does quality and product testing using wheat samples from across the Northwest. Janice Cooper, managing director at the center, said they also do hands-on training for overseas customers making products such as crackers, noodles and tortillas.
“Most of the work we do is with Asian and Latin American trade teams that come here,” Cooper said.
Laboratory supervisor Bon Lee demonstrated some of the high-tech equipment he uses to measure things such as gluten and starch content in dough. Lee explained in depth how he performs what is known as the “falling numbers” test, which checks for sprout damage in grain.
Low falling numbers has plagued parts of Washington and Idaho in recent years due to pre-harvest rains, Lee said.
“When it rains before harvest ... the sprouting process starts,” Lee said. “Even if you dry it, it’s too late.”
The vast majority of Oregon wheat — 85 to 90 percent — is shipped overseas. The U.S. Wheat Associates is the industry’s promotion arm, developing export markets in more than 100 countries.
Shawn Campbell, deputy director of the organization in Portland, said the most important thing farmers can do is maintain high quality, especially as the global marketplace for wheat becomes more competitive.
Countries such as Japan are particularly interested in buying high-quality soft white wheat from the Pacific Northwest, Campbell said, and consumers there have the income to pay for it.
“If we didn’t give our overseas customers what they wanted, they’d go elsewhere and find it there,” Campbell said.
Next, the group traveled to the Pacific Export Terminal at the Port of Portland, where employees work around the clock loading and unloading wheat shipments from around the region. The terminal is capable of moving 900 metric tons of wheat per hour, while also providing another layer of quality testing on site through the USDA.
Kim Harper, quality assurance specialist, showed how he pulls samples from wheat shipments and combs over each individual grain looking for things such as mold, insect and sprout damage.
“We’re seeing wheat come from across the West and Midwest,” Harper said. “We have to keep up on all that.”
The group wrapped up day one with a stop at a downtown Portland bakery, and spent day two aboard a river tugboat and chatting about the latest wheat research with Oregon State University scientists.
Blake Rowe, CEO of both the Oregon Wheat Commission and Oregon Wheat Growers League, said workshops are designed to give farmers a feel for everything that happens off their farm.
“They’ll actually get an appreciation of what a customer is looking for,” Rowe said. “I think that is something that is helpful to them.”
Oregon cattlemen urge changes to BLM sage grouse management plan
While the Trump administration has reopened western sage protections for further review, the Oregon Cattlemen’s Association is renewing its call for more grazing and rancher-friendly provisions on the range.
In a letter sent Jan. 10 to Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, OCA President Nathan Jackson and Executive Director Jerome Rosa said the Bureau of Land Management ignored key local findings when it approved the 2015 Oregon Greater Sage Grouse Resource Management Plan.
Specifically, they argue the BLM eliminated grazing from many research natural areas and neglected how grazing can actually improve the landscape for sage grouse — namely reducing wildfire fuels and controlling invasive weeds.
Rosa said the letter also reiterates that Oregonians want to see changes in the plan, despite seemingly contrary public comments from Gov. Kate Brown.
“There is some confusion in Washington, D.C., that Oregon is the only western state that is not supportive of amendments to the sage grouse plan, which is tremendously worrisome,” Rosa said.
Brown has said in a statement last October that the decision to reconsider sage grouse plans last year was “reckless,” adding the administration “is playing fast and loose with two things that make Oregon special — proud rural communities and diverse wildlife.”
The OCA speculates, however, whether Brown understands that the BLM did not adopt Oregon’s own sage grouse assessment, which was adopted by the Department of Fish & Wildlife in 2011.
“With all due respect to our governor, unfortunately, she appears to have been misinformed that the BLM (plan) adopted the ODFW Oregon sage grouse strategy. It did not,” the OCA states in its letter to Zinke.
The BLM plan needs to be amended to harmonize with the state strategy, the letter continues.
“The ODFW Oregon sage grouse strategy was state driven, Oregon-based, and was an outgrowth of collaboration that considered the unique conditions in Oregon,” the OCA writes.
According to the ODFW strategy, “ranching as a land use generally supported greater biodiversity as measured by native plant species and shrub/grassland nesting birds than exurban developments or reserves.”
Yet ranchers claim the BLM eliminated livestock grazing in many suitable areas, such as 8,282 acres in the Rahilly-Gravelly allotment in southeast Oregon, which was previously determined to be in good health.
On Nov. 27, 2017, both the OCA and Oregon Farm Bureau submitted nine pages of written comments to the BLM in Portland, seeking to remove what they described as overly restrictive components of the federal sage grouse plan. One request was to allow “proper grazing and compatible grazing practices.”
Tom Sharp, president-elect of OCA and a cattle rancher near Burns, Ore., explained how grazing is compatible and sometimes beneficial to the landscape, which in turn supports sage grouse habitat.
Not only does livestock reduce the fuel load that can spur devastating rangeland fires, but in springtime the cattle eat still-green species of common weeds such as cheat grass and medusahead.
The slogan among ranchers, Sharp said, is “good for the bird, good for the herd.”
“When utilized properly, (grazing) can be used to do good things across the landscape,” he said.
Sharp acknowledged that, when done carelessly or abusively, grazing can have negative impacts and strip the land bare. But responsible grazing is increasingly being recognized by science as beneficial, he said.
“It’s those good practices that are being recognized not only by science, but by the U.S. Fish ad Wildlife Service as being compatible and sometimes beneficial to sage grouse,” Sharp said.
Hazelnut health perceptions improve
CORVALLIS, Ore. — Consumers increasingly see hazelnuts as healthy, which means the crop is in prime position to be included in new food products, according to consumer research.
In 2017, a survey found that 47 percent of consumers considered hazelnuts “very healthy,” up from 24 percent in 2006, said Steve Bryant, managing director of the Seattle office of MSL, a public relations firm.
“It tells us you’re really on the right track,” Bryant said at the Jan. 18 annual convention of the Nut Growers Society.
Overall, 88 percent of survey respondents said hazelnuts were either very or somewhat healthy.
These perceptions align with the facts, as hazelnuts have been found to be high in iron, dietary fiber and heart-healthy monounsaturated fats, he said.
Consumers appear to be eating more whole hazelnuts — as opposed to hazelnuts in manufactured foods — with the proportion rising from 33 percent once a month in 2006 to 49 percent once per month in 2017, Bryant said.
Among those consumers who haven’t eaten hazelnuts, 82 percent want to try them, he said. “That’s a good signal for the food industry.”
The top consumers of hazelnuts are currently women aged 18-44 with a higher-than-average income, a college or post-graduate education and children at home, he said.
“These customers, above all, are who food companies are chasing,” Bryant said, since they often shop for the whole family and aren’t as limited by price.
People are generally eating more tree nuts, which is good news for hazelnut growers because consumers also crave variety, he said.
Even if they have another favorite tree nut, consumers desire a change in flavor profile, Bryant said. “People get fatigued with almonds.”
Hazelnuts are seen as a high-quality product but not financially out of reach — 27 percent of consumers consider them “expensive,” compared to 48 percent for macadamia nuts, 40 percent for pistachios and 35 percent for cashews, he said.
Though hazelnuts are often associated with candy bars and other sweet products, consumers want to see them in “healthier applications,” such as salads and salad dressings, as well as ingredients in main courses, he said.
A majority of consumers prefer hazelnuts grown in the U.S., Bryant said. “It’s a vote for America. It’s a chance to identify with people like them.”
The popularity of hazelnuts is reflected the number of new “stock keeping units” — a measure of retail products — that include the crop, he said.
In 2013, manufacturers introduced 63 new SKUs with hazelnuts, followed by 51 in 2014 and 93 in 2015, Bryant said. Overall, the number of SKUs including hazelnuts grew 47 percent in that time.
“New products mean new demand to fill that supply,” he said.
At this point, the supply of U.S. hazelnuts is a major constraint on the development of new food products, said Larry George, president of the George Packing Co.
Oregon, the primary hazelnut-growing state, currently averages fewer than 40,000 tons of hazelnuts per year, he said.
Food manufacturers would need average yearly production to increase to about 60,000 tons per year before they significantly invested in new products, George said.
At the current rate, though, Oregon is likely to achieve this production level in two or three years, he said.
The sale of Nestle’s U.S. confectionery business to Ferrero is probably a positive sign for the domestic hazelnut industry, as Ferrero is very comfortable with the crop and its supply chain, George said.
While Turkey continues to dominate global hazelnut production, U.S. manufacturers want to see domestic production grow to ensure reliability, he said.
Oregon companies can supply manufacturers on the East Coast with hazelnuts within four days, compared to 45-60 days for orders from Turkish suppliers, which may get rejected, George said.
“It can disrupt the supply chain,” he said.
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CMC meeting Boston
The CMC met in Boston this past Wednesday to discuss the proposed Marketing Order as published in the Federal Register on January 2, 2018 for comment. This is the order for the 2017 crop. They reviewed this proposed order and compared it to the order that the CMC proposed in August.
First though, the committee reviewed estimates of the 2017 crop just delivered. I say estimates, because the handler reports aren’t due for a couple of days and those final numbers won’t be official until early next month. Mother Nature provided a significant supply correction with an estimated crop US crop of 8,260,000 bbls, down 880,000 bbls from the CMCs projection of 9,141,000 bbls. That is about a 10% drop. One handler told me that he thought this was the largest crop decrease since 1976! Every single growing area was level or down, both within the US and growing areas not covered by this order. Worldwide, the crop is estimated to be down 1,560,000 bbls. I can’t remember, and don’t know if this has ever happened that all growing areas were down.
When the CMC voted for an order in August, they had projected that a 15% order would reduce the US crop by 915,000 bbls. So poor growing conditions/weather did most of our work for us. Based on that information, the committee discussed the other items introduced in the Proposed Order by the USDA. The committee had recommended that every handler receive a 125,000 bbl exemption, so in other words the first 125,000 bbls of a handle is exempt. The USDA’s proposal is that handlers below 125,000 are exempt and those above are not exempt. This affects only 7-8 handlers out of the 60 total handlers and affects the smaller of these handlers disproportionately as they can’t spread the cost of disposal over as many barrels. There were many comments as to the fairness of the proposed changes. Take for example a 300,000 bbls handler. With the CMC proposal he would have had to dispose of 300,000 bbls – 125,000= 175,000 bbls x .15%=26,250 bbls disposed. Under the proposed USDA plan that same handler would have to dispose of 300,000 bbls x 15%=45,000 bbls. The difference is significant. If the proposed USDA plan is enacted it would take another 1,000,000 bbls off the market in addition to the 880,000 bbls that naturally came off the market.
Besides the 125,000 exemption, the other significant change made by the USDA was the addition of “Any handler who does not have carryover inventory at the end of the 2017-2018 year would also be exempt” and ” Further, only handlers who would have carryover inventory that is not sold or under contract and the end of the 2017-2018 fiscal year would be subject to the 15 percent restriction” to the order. There was much discussion on these provisions imploring the USDA to provide guidance on what is define what is “sold” and “under contract”. The industry needs a certain amount of “pipeline” that is in our projections to get the processors from one crop to the availability of the new crop, which allows the processing plants to run efficiently and continually. Do we have more than the necessary amount of carryover as an industry. Absolutely, hence the request for a marketing order. But to make handlers prove their sales or contracts to prove they are in balance without carryover seems like an exercise fraught with problems. The addition of this wordage was probably intended to have the handlers with the most inventory subject to the order, and has numerous problems in application.
In the end, the CMC could only review the Proposed Order and make recommendations. In consideration of the large amount of decrease in fruit provided due to growing conditions, the CMC recommended to the USDA that the Volume reduction be reduced from 15% to 5%. This amount is estimated to take another 320,000 bbls out of the supply.
The USDA representatives were engaged and listened intently to all of the presenters and commentary. It was by no means a negotiation or give and take. They suggested that everyone make these same comments to the Federal Register. The comment period is open until February 2, 2018
Just a reminder…I am not a member of the CMC and that I try to provide this information to other growers as a service. I try my best to be fair and accurate.
Verne Gingerich wins Nut Grower of the Year
Having worked as both a grower and processor, Verne Gingerich has a fully integrated view of Northwest hazelnut production.
The industry’s relatively small size allows for effective communication, which has allowed it to thrive, Gingerich said upon accepting the 2017 Nut Grower of the Year award during the Nut Growers Society’s Jan. 18 annual meeting in Corvallis, Ore.
“We’re in a good industry and I hope we keep it that way,” said Gingerich, who farms near Canby, Ore.
Gingerich credited his father, Richard, with the foresight to begin cultivating hazelnuts, which have bestowed many blessings on the family.
Aside from growing hazelnuts, Gingerich also worked for the Northwest Hazelnut Co. and eventually became a partner in the processing company in the 1990s.
Though he’s since sold his interest to the George Packing Co., Gingerich continues to run a receiving station for hazelnuts.
While operating the processing company, Gingerich had a keen sense of where the markets were heading and how the industry should position itself, said Lisa Pascoe, office manager for Northwest Hazelnut Co., who presented him with the award.
As a farmer, Gingerich is always eager to share his knowledge with others, Pascoe said. “He is always a huge asset for those he helps.”
In the past, Gingerich served five years on the Nut Growers Society’s board, including a stint as president in 1990, in addition to his involvement with the Oregon Hazelnut Marketing Board.
Gingerich also sits on a committee that advises the Oregon Department of Agriculture about shipping point inspections and is involved with local firefighting agencies.
New business lines needed to subsidize Portland container shipping
The Port of Portland’s container facility must diversify since it’s unlikely to become self-sustaining by focusing solely on handling containers, according to a consultant’s report.
To break even financially, the port’s Terminal 6 would need to move nearly 200,000 containers a year — more than the facility ever handled even during its heyday, the report said.
By bringing in additional business lines that would subsidize container operations, the facility could reach break even by moving fewer than 150,000 containers a year.
“It’s got to be a part of a bigger entity and supported by the other activities the port is involved in,” said Nolan Gimpel, project manager for the Advisian consulting company, which prepared the report.
Agricultural exporters once relied on the container terminal to get straw and other farm goods shipped to Asia, but ocean carriers stopped calling on the facility in 2015 and 2016 due to labor productivity problems.
The Port of Portland has since mended its relationship with the longshoremen’s union, which it hopes will improve productivity, but other challenges remain formidable.
Terminal 6 regularly handled more than 150,000 containers during the late 1990s and early 2000s, but the shipping industry has changed dramatically in recent years, Advisian’s report said.
Newly-built container ships are mostly too large to serve the inland port, while ocean carriers have consolidated and are reluctant to travel the added distance to Terminal 6, Gimpel said during a recent meeting of Port of Portland’s commission.
Three major “alliances” of ocean carrier companies now control about 87 percent of the trans-Pacific Ocean container market, he said.
The port should try to partner with one of the smaller independent companies that control the remaining 13 percent, since they’re able to fill a niche and make decisions more quickly, Gimpel said.
“To get to sustainability is going to take a while, and it’s not an easy task,” he said.
Other minor ports, such as San Diego and Philadelphia, have been able to sustain a profitable container business, but their situation isn’t neatly analogous to Portland’s, he said.
“What do they have that we don’t have? In all of those cases, those ports are much, much closer to a huge population base,” Gimpel said.
The Port of Portland expects to know within about three years whether Terminal 6 can remain competitive or whether the market passed it by, said Keith Leavitt, the port’s chief commercial officer.
There are opportunities to create new business at the container terminal, such as facilitating trade between North and South America, which typically relies on smaller ships than trans-Pacific trade, Leavitt said.
“We should be able to compete for those,” he said. “Those vessels are a good fit for the Columbia river.”
Handling “break bulk” cargo, such as imported steel slabs from Russia that aren’t containerized, is another potential business line, Leavitt said. Vessels that carry such slabs don’t require as deep a draft as larger container vessels.
The facility will soon be serviced by ocean vessels from Swire, which will handle trucks and break bulk cargo, and it’s already opened a transmodal truck-to-rail facility that ships export products to Puget Sound ports.
Adding new business ventures to the 420-acre Terminal 6 won’t require major capital investment, Leavitt said. “We’re in good shape from an infrastructure standpoint.”
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West Coast Cannabis Groups Band Together To Protect Interests
Cannabis trade associations in Oregon, Washington and California are banding together to “protect West Coast cannabis interests.”
Earlier this month, U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions rescinded what was known as the Cole Memo. It was an Obama-era legal memo that allowed states to legalize cannabis with minimal interference from federal authorities.
Amy Margolis with the Oregon Cannabis Association said they were planning to join forces with other West Coast associations before the memo was rescinded. “But this certainly accelerated our timeline and made this announcement even more important.”
“With all of the West Coast states having legalized adult-use cannabis, our organizations strongly believe that we must move towards a collaborative process to ensure that we maximize our political power, offer our members the most comprehensive benefits possible and stand together against existential federal threats,” said Margolis.
The three associations will share strategies for legalizing marijuana at the federal level. Margolis said they have three main goals: “One, to share strategy and information. Two, to share resources when it’s appropriate. And three, to put forward a united front to the federal government.”
The group says it plans to coordinate lobbying efforts. So instead of 40 Oregonians visiting Washington, D.C., a trip might involve 100 advocates from up and down the West Coast.
“With more than 1,000 combined business members, who collectively employ thousands and generate millions and millions in tax revenue, represented by this new relationship, we will be the largest and most powerful voice for the West Coast,” said Lindsay Robinson from the California Cannabis Industry Association.
Oregon Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer called the initiative an exciting, important and historic development.
“Responsible leaders in the industry working together is exactly how we will change destructive and nonsensical federal policies and set things right,” he said.
Sessions says marijuana is a dangerous drug and dealing it is a serious crime.
Corban University adds agribusiness to list of concentrations
SALEM — Corban University, a private Christian college on the outskirts of Salem, Ore., is poised to add classes in agribusiness next fall, which school officials hope will plant the seed for a full agricultural sciences degree in the future.
University President Sheldon Nord will make the official announcement Friday evening during the SAIF Agribusiness Banquet at the Salem Convention Center.
“We’re very excited about the agribusiness concentration,” Nord said. “Not only will it allow us to make the best possible use of our resources — not the least of which is our location in the Willamette Valley — but it’s going to equip our students to meet the needs of the marketplace.”
Agribusiness will be offered as a concentration under the Hoff School of Business. Griff Lindell, the business school dean, said they are looking for 15 students to launch the program in August.
“This concentration is going to be an exceptional complement to the business concentrations we already offer,” Lindell said. “It’s an exciting time for the agriculture industry, and an exciting time for Corban.”
Corban University is now the only private Christian college with an agricultural program west of the Rockies.
The Hoff School of Business already provides concentrations in accounting, marketing, leadership and management and sports and recreation business. Agribusiness will become the fifth concentration at the school, and though the curriculum is still being finalized, Lindell said it will include courses in agricultural marketing, commodity markets and food pricing.
The concentration will also require six credits of internship at companies along the agricultural value chain, from farms and ranches to food processing and technology.
Lindell said there is a growing need for qualified graduates in agriculture. He cited statistics that, by 2020, companies will need to fill a projected 57,000 agricultural jobs, with 46 percent of those in management and business.
“So it makes sense to have a new concentration where we provide the workplace with 15, 20, 30 students a year in the agriculture value chain,” he said.
The ultimate goal, Lindell said, is for Corban to introduce its own college of agricultural studies, with full majors in agribusiness, agricultural science and agricultural missions — a combination of science, entrepreneurship and inter-cultural communications to help feed the world.
The university completed a feasibility report on building the new school in 2016, and recently purchased an additional 78 acres contiguous to campus. But first, Lindell said they are focused on the agribusiness concentration, which if successful, could develop into its own major and lead to a full college likely sometime after 2022.
“That’s still the goal,” Lindell said. “The first step toward that is to do a concentration within the Hoff School of Business.”
Established in 1935, Corban University now has a total enrollment of 1,140 students, including 997 undergraduates. It is a member of the Council for Christian Colleges and Universities, and accredited by the Northwest Commission on Colleges and Universities.